Inside the Markets
Market Signals:
Market Benchmarks
Index market signals track central bank policy impact on multiples, aggregate earnings growth, sector leadership rotation, market breadth divergence, and volatility regimes across 77 indices.
Universal Signals
Apply to all instruments in the Market Benchmarks class.
macro
Central Bank Policy — Index Multiple Regime
Central bank QE/QT cycles and rate decisions directly drive aggregate P/E expansion and contraction — CB balance sheet size correlates with index level as liquidity flows into equities.
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technical
Market Breadth Divergence
An index rising while market breadth deteriorates — few stocks carrying many — signals narrowing participation and elevated correction risk.
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sentiment
VIX Regime — Volatility Structure
VIX level and trend identify market volatility regimes — complacency below 15 creates vulnerability, fear above 30 creates opportunity.
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technical
Volatility Cluster with OI Surge — Regime Shift
Volatility clustering alongside an open interest surge signals new capital entering directional bets — historically this co-occurrence marks the start of sustained trending regimes.
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earnings-surprise
Aggregate EPS Growth — Index Earnings Cycle
Index NTM EPS trajectory is the primary fundamental anchor for direction — upward revision breadth leads price returns by 1–3 months; downward revisions precede de-rating and multiple compression.
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sector-rotation
Sector Leadership Rotation Within Index
Narrow index leadership — few sectors driving returns — signals fragile momentum vulnerable to reversal; broad sector participation confirms sustainable trend strength and lower correction risk.
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sentiment
Sentiment breadth shift between speculative and defensive buckets
Breadth contraction — fewer instruments participating in a trend — signals fragility; broad cross-instrument participation confirms sustainable momentum and reduces reversal probability.
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sentiment
Retail FOMO spikes and short‑term speculative breadth surges
Retail participation surges — new wallet growth, small-ticket inflows, social attention — inflate short-term prices, then typically resolve in sharp corrections as speculative money exits.
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macro
Correlation Shift — Altcoin vs Leading Crypto
Weakening altcoin-to-leading-crypto rolling correlation alongside improving altcoin breadth signals idiosyncratic rotation — historically precedes altcoin outperformance windows of 2–6 weeks.
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Instrument-Specific Signals
Top 10 high-severity signals specific to individual Market Benchmarks instruments.
macro
Risk-on expansion and altcoin breadth lift DEX governance tokens
A repeatable macro pattern: when global risk appetite rises and crypto market breadth broadens, liquidity rotates from safe assets into altcoins, favoring DEX governance tokens due to rising...
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sentiment
Breadth and sentiment shift in social narratives around the NFT/gaming token
A repeatable sentiment pattern measuring breadth of positive vs negative narratives (mentions of partnerships, game launches vs hacks/regulatory issues) across social channels; changes in narrative...
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technical
High realized volatility regime increases volatility drag
BNBUP, as a leveraged, path-dependent product, underperforms during sustained high realized volatility regimes due to volatility drag and frequent rebalancing.
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sentiment
Rapid social dominance drop and negative sentiment breadth
Sentiment pattern: a sudden collapse in the leading asset's social dominance combined with deteriorating sentiment breadth across crypto discussions (more negative mentions, fewer unique mentions)...
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